After pulling off six of nine winning betting angles – all at odds – last weekend, plus a winning 7/2 main bet, Jones Knows is back for midweek action.
Weekend winners for Jones Knows?
- Man City win and under 3.5 goals at 6/5
- Chelsea winner and more than 3.5 goals at 11/10
- Aston Villa +2 handicap to 6/5
- Liverpool win 1-0 to 8/1
- Brentford vs Watford on 2.5 and BTTS at 6/5
- Palace vs Everton, most goals in the second half at 11/10
- Newcastle +2 corner handicap against Leicester at 11/10
- Jones Knows weekend 7/2 double
Chelsea vs Everton, Thursday 7:45 p.m.
I’m not sure I want to hit Chelsea here at 2/9 with Sky Bet having seen them stumble to a rather lucky win over Leeds this weekend. The Blues have lowered their level over the past three weeks and it’s unclear why and how that happened. Even Thiago Silva looked rushed and sloppy against Leeds.
Maybe it’s just a matter of confidence and Everton just might be the perfect tonic for the European champions to find him. Everton are winless in six away league games, losing each of their last four in a row and are used to under Rafa Benitez only asking questions of teams one or two goals behind. They can’t afford to do that at Stamford Bridge.
I’m going to deviate from the match prices and focus on player shots with Antonio Rudiger still overpriced in this particular market.
Rudiger, who also enjoys long-range strikes, has managed at least one shot on goal in 14 of his last 15 appearances in all competitions and has managed two or more shots in six of his last 12 Premier League appearances. Rudiger is a set piece threat, an area of Everton that is notoriously sloppy without Yerry Mina. On Sunday, James Tomkins scored the eighth goal Everton has conceded this season on set pieces this season.
They’re going to take the pressure off and the shots should come in on Jordan Pickford from all angles. Rudiger can shoot two at 9/4 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
BETTING ANGLE: Antonio Rudiger will have at least two shots on goal (9/4 with Sky Bet)
Liverpool vs Newcastle, Thursday 8 p.m.
Say a little prayer in defense of Newcastle. Liverpool are 1/11 for a home win, and for good reason.
With a routine win on the cards for Liverpool, we might see a scenario where the game is all but over as a 60 minute contest. This got me interested in the game that produced a low number of cards. Liverpool matches against lower ranked teams are usually low card business due to the opposition teams unwilling or unable to make the game an open affair. One-sided matches are generally weak on maps.
In the last 22 games against teams that finished the season in the last four or are currently in the last four, Liverpool’s games have averaged just 1.7 cards per 90 minutes.
Interestingly, eight of those matches did not produce any cards for either team which becomes a common theme in these types of matches as five of the last seven saw the match end with zero card counts. Two of those matches – Liverpool 2-0 Burnley and West Brom 1-2 Liverpool – were refereed by Mike Dean, who seems to keep the game going much more than it did in his youth.
He takes the controls here, which only adds fuel to the low card argument. He also refereed Liverpool against Brighton this season and it took him 89 minutes to wave the first yellow card before showing three more in stoppage time. In a one-sided game that could descend into a pedestrian tempo, the 12/1 for Dean to show no cards is worth a tickle.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-0
BETTING ANGLE: Neither team receives a card (12/1 with Sky Bet)